Jonathan Sobels; Sue Richardson; Graham Turner (CSIRO); Alaric Maude; Yan Tan; Andrew Beer; Zhang Wei
Year: 2010
Funding Body: Department of Imigration and Citizenship
Abstract
This research set out to examine the nature of the relationship between population growth driven by particular long term average levels of net overseas migration (NOM), the implications on Australia’s natural and built physical environment over the next fifty years, and relevant policy considerations. The research was commissioned to complement research on the impact of migration on future economic and labour force growth (‘Demographic and labour supply futures for Australia’, Professor Peter McDonald & Jeromey Temple, Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute, Australian National University, July 2010).
This research offers the benefit of varied perspectives from a range of disciplines and methodological approaches. One of the approaches was to deploy the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF), a physical model of the environment and the economy.
Key messages
Scale and location are crucial to understanding physical implications of population change. The focus of concern for managing the physical implications of NOM should be on particular locations at the regional/local level as the impact of population/NOM dynamics is more critical for some locations than others. In general, and having regard to the highly contested reliability of the ASFF, the macro-scale modelling found that higher levels of NOM impose greater adverse impacts on the quality of our natural and built environments, other things being equal.
Future research should focus on identifying ways of improving the adaptive efficiency of regions of Australia in which increases in NOM are most likely to take place. Any quantitative modelling used in such research should include to the extent possible prices, and have regard to the role of positive and negative feedback processes, risk and uncertainty in the Australian economy, the interconnectivity of the Australian economy with the rest of the world, and include considerations such as the role of terms of trade, exchange rates and foreign debt in the Australian economy.
